Saturday, January 22, 2022

The UofC Law School Phoenix again

Back in 1993, I raised the issue that if one force-fit a population with a non-Gaussian distribution of skills to a Gaussian distribution of grades, the likelihood of error was NOT uniformly distributed.

Flash forward 2022 and one has some Covid commentary:

If you spread omicron to someone who is immunocompromised — has a medical condition or is over 65-years-old — you could make them severely sick. “If you kind of think of that bell shaped curve, there’s people on the left side that are super mildly affected, and people in the far right side that are significantly affected, even with omicron, and then there’s the masses that live in the middle that fare okay,” Casanova said. “You couple that with its crazy contagiousness, and what you have is actually a larger number of individuals needing to seek health care and be hospitalized.”

The interesting thing here is that one has an ever-changing "far right side" of the curve, as the immune-compromised people die off and no longer belong to the "living" cohort. In that view, new covid variants could appear "milder" simply because they are facing a more robust population than did the variants of 2020. The right hand side of the curve is changing in population more than is the left hand side.

That said, one notes that the Covid death rate has increased significantly since December 1, 2021

Link for Casanova

If omicron is really a milder variant, why are so many North Texans in the hospital? Read more at:


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