Friday, September 26, 2008

Electoral landslide predicted for November 2008

The [Rochester] Democrat and Chronicle had an article with text:

"Essentially the election is at equilibrium," said John Zogby, president of Zogby International. "This election will stay close until the end."

Zogby said he thinks the race will turn in the last weekend before Election Day and though the popular vote will be tight, the successful candidate will win in a landslide.

He likened this year's election to the contest in 1980, when Ronald Reagan defeated President Jimmy Carter.

CURIOUSLY, although an electoral landslide was predicted, there was NO prediction of "who" was going to get it:

Despite two books by Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Barack Obama, Americans still don't know enough about him. And if they don't think they know him well enough by the time they vote, they'll go with the "comfortable old shoe," Republican Sen. John McCain, Zogby said.

If Obama can convince voters, he'll increase turnout among young people and minorities, Zogby said.

Obama as a candidate was designed perfectly to strongly challenge, and ultimately defeat, Hillary Clinton WITHIN the Democratic party. Strategic execution was great. Obama has an interesting strategy for McCain (eg, Virginia) but one wonders how Ohio and Pennsylvania will play out. Will "blue collar guy" Joe Biden save a bad position in those states? How many stupid things can Joe Biden say, or does it even matter?

Of polling itself, the COMPLETE MELTDOWN of all polls in the New Jersey stem cell vote should not be forgotten, however much the pollsters don't like to talk about that one.


Why are pollsters doing so badly?
[pollsters got NH primary wrong]

Star-Ledger fails to rationalize defeat of NJ stem cell bond question
[pollsters got NJ stem cell vote basically backwards]


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