Monday, November 14, 2016

Foreseeability and predictions

Leaving aside the media predictions of the winner of the Presidential election of 2016, recall also that Strat-O-Matic
predicted the Cleveland Indians to win Game 6 by a score of 7-2:

That's right, Strat expects the Indians to finish things off in Game 6, winning by a five-run margin. Cubs starter Jake Arrieta disappointed in the simulation, walking six batters in 2 2/3 innings. Danny Salazar, meanwhile, made an impressive relief appearance for the Indians -- allowing one baserunner in 1 1/3 innings. Jose Ramirez was the offensive hero for the Indians, driving in a pair of runs. Oh, and the final out? A Dexter Fowler fly out to Coco Crisp.

Will Strat-O-Matic get this one right? We'll find out soon enough.

Arrieta won 2 games in the Series and had an ERA of 2.38.
Kluber won 2 games in the Series and had an ERA of 2.81.

Chapman and Miller had the same ERA, 3.52 , each allowing 3 earned runs in 7.2 innings and each winning one game.
Salazar gave up no runs and 1 hit in 3 innings in the series, including 2 innings/one hit in game 6.
Ramirez was 1 for 4 in game 6, with no RBIs.

Many things suggested to be predictable/foreseeable are not.


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