Monday, August 03, 2009

Deja vu?

Back during the oil crunches of the 1970's, the predictions made at the time were that oil would run out in the 2020's.
Those predictions were discarded. Now, we have a prediction from Dr Fatih Birol, the chief economist at the International Energy Agency (IEA) that oil is running out far faster than previously predicted and that global production is likely to peak in about 10 years.

"One day we will run out of oil, it is not today or tomorrow, but one day we will run out of oil and we have to leave oil before oil leaves us, and we have to prepare ourselves for that day. The earlier we start, the better, because all of our economic and social system is based on oil, so to change from that will take a lot of time and a lot of money and we should take this issue very seriously."


on Paul H. Jensen

on Ron Katznelson [SSRN]


Blogger Step Back said...

"the oil will run out"

Sadly, this is a serious situation and few in the IP business (or in government in general) understand the gravity of the problem.

Stating that "the oil will run out" is misinformative and misdescriptive. The real problem is rate of extraction of crude from the ground at affordable prices.

M. King Hubbert was pretty much on target when he predicted the lower 48 states would peak around 1970 and he seems to be close (although not perfect, who is?) in having predicted that the global peak will be reached around 2000. For those interested, do a web search on the term. "Peak Oil". (Warning: The information you will uncover is pretty depressing. Sometimes ignorance is indeed bliss.)

4:19 AM  

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