Wednesday, June 08, 2011

MoFo Tech

The beginning of the spring/summer issue:

The lumpy, bumpy road to recovery was clearly not charted out
on Google Maps. There have been too many false starts, too
many dead ends, too many roads taken out of service. But, as our
cover story documents, recovery is no longer on the horizon, it’s

Were they watching Scott Pelley on CBS last night?

How about the Federal Reserve's Beige Report?

The US Federal Reserve Board'sBeige Bookreport, covering the period from 5 April to 27 May 2011, reports a general slowdown in the expansion rate, with manufacturing leading the charge, high energy and food prices dragging down consumer spending, and supply-chain disruptions from Japan's Tohoku earthquake.

UPDATE on June 17, 2011, from Reuters:

The International Monetary Fund cut its forecast for U.S. economic growth on Friday [June 17] and warned Washington and debt-ridden European countries that they are "playing with fire" unless they take immediate steps to reduce their budget deficits.

UPDATE on June 25, 2011

A drumbeat of disappointing data about consumer behavior, factory sales and weak hiring in recent weeks has prompted economists to ratchet down their 2011 economic forecasts to as little as half what they expected at the beginning of the year.

Two months ago, Goldman Sachs projected that the economy would grow at a 4 percent annual rate in the quarter ending in June. The company now expects the government to report no more than 2 percent growth when data for the second quarter is released in a few weeks.

Macroeconomic Advisers, a research firm, projected 3.5 percent growth back in April and is now down to just 2.1 percent for this quarter.

Both these firms, well respected in their analysis, have cut their forecasts for the second half of the year as well. Then this week, the Federal Reserve downgraded its projections for the full year, to under 3 percent growth. It started the year with guidance as high as 3.9 percent.


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