Wednesday, January 09, 2008

Why are pollsters doing so badly?

The pollsters got the Democrat primary in New Hampshire wrong. In an article titled, Pollsters flummoxed by New Hampshire primary, Reuters noted:

In an era of instant analysis, everybody had a theory on why the polls got it wrong -- from the humanizing effect of Clinton's teary eyes while campaigning on Monday to the suspicion that New Hampshire voters get a perverse satisfaction from doing the opposite of Iowa voters.

"It's really a case study in the limits of momentum," said University of New Hampshire political analyst Dante Scala, commenting on pollsters' predictions that Obama would keep surging after a decisive win in the Iowa vote last week

Earlier, in the November 2007 elections in New Jersey, pollsters were monstrously wrong on the stem cell bond vote.



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